bonds

SOFT LANDING   Since WWII there have been 14 Fed rate hiking cycles. 11 out of 14 have resulted in recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP). All hiking cycles that invert the curve have led to recessions (and lower rates) within 1 to 3 years.   The big concern is prior to even the …

Soft Landing Read More »

APRIL FOOL   So far 2022 has been a bad year to be an investor, and April was a month that added insult to injury. US stocks adjusted for inflation (real terms) are on pace for the worst annual drop since 1974.   Tech led the slide lower with the NASDAQ monthly change in April …

April Fool Read More »

I also shared a similar post on this topic via Instagram.   MONETARY POLICY TUG-OF-WAR The Fed’s preferred inflation metric (PCE) reported the highest year-over-year increase in 40 years today.   The Personal Consumption Expenditures data is the change in goods and services consumed by all households. However, the consumer doesn’t need Fed data to …

Monetary Tug-of-War Read More »

I also shared a similar post on this topic via Instagram.   INFLATION … what is it good for? Absolutely nothing (say it again y’all).   Inflation is measured as a rate of change; the most recent year-over-year inflation numbers are the highest in decades. The Federal Reserve has a “dual mandate” – maximum employment …

Inflation – What is it good for? Read More »

  Last week the Fed hiked the “Fed Funds Rate” by 25 basis points (0.25%). Today Fed Chairmen Jerome Powell made additional comments on how they (The Fed) plans to reign in inflation. I summarize those comments in the image below.   It is said that markets never repeat, but they do rhyme. The current …

Rate Crash Deja Vu Read More »

  “China, China, China.”   Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day (March 14th) since the global financial crisis (2009).   The Golden Dragon Index, which represents market performance of large and mid-cap securities in China is now cheaper than the S&P 500 for the first time since 2014, down 72% from …

Cascading Chaos Read More »

The thing I find scarier than the rising cost of EVERYTHING, is how unequipped people are to stay afloat financially unless they are able to refinance their debts every 6 months. There is a shocking expectation and dependency to finance and refinance lifestyle at least once a year. What that says is people do not …

The Coda Read More »

This was an email that was originally delivered to my subscribers July, 2021.   To receive exclusive content and get early access to emails like the one included below SUBSCRIBE HERE. “Brace yourself” … for an email loaded with memes. I hope you know what a meme is, and if not, you most certainly will …

Brace Yourself … for the Game of Loans Read More »

The gift is you can do anything you want.   The burden is choosing because you cannot do everything.   Variety is a potent drug.   It is where procrastination likes to hide.   Be clear about your mission and set goals to guide your way.     Discipline is more powerful than motivation, so …

The Secret to Success Read More »