Social Media @ JONKUTSMEDA jonkutsmeda WARNING: Drive Carefully, Curve Up Ahead Inverted In this 90 second video I explain: • Why the re We do not RISE... To the LEVEL of our GOALS. Ins LAW OF RECUPERATION The biggest misconception abo HELOC - 7 THINGS TO KNOW Before you get HELOC lis The TRUTH about FED RATE HIKES … and why mortga Before 2023 takes off and gets ahead of us, we nee THE WEEKLY KUT Each week I share a blog post call In this clip I share my thoughts on the housing ma Happy New Year! Here is some quick advice to help PEAK INFLATION. The recent trend of #inflation su "John Hancock ... it's Herbie Hancock." The same Load More Follow on Instagram Twitter feed is not available at the moment. What is Gold? Is it Money? In a special mashup video feature for The Money MBA Podcast, Jon Kutsmeda brings you two of the most unbiased, thought-provoking discussions you will ever here on the topic of GOLD. The first video is a clip from the March 31, 2023 episode of the Pirates of Finance Podcast, featuring Jason Buck and Corey Hoffstein. https://youtu.be/QToKgkflrYI The 2nd clip is from a Dec 2020 interview Jon did with Michael Green for the Money MBA Podcast. The full interview is available here: https://youtu.be/czYNM6oPX9I ------------------- CHAPTERS ------------------- 00:00 – Money MBA intro 00:40 – The mashup inspiration 01:37 – Clip 1, Pirates of Finance 16:19 – Clip 2, Michael Green on the Money MBA Podcast --------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Visit http://JKUTS.com to learn more about Jon Kutsmeda and to access his other podcasts, blog posts, and FREE downloads. ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- Please subscribe to Jon's YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/@JonKutsmeda You can also follow him on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. #gold #money #preciousmetals 2 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLk1TYWZqNXJqRFNN SEASON 03 - EPISODE 02: The Mortgage Guru has a fresh new look with a full video recording of me, as I riff in real time about the week in markets and mortgage rates. This week we had the December inflation data (CPI) and the best mortgage rates in 4-months as the bond market continued to rally, although not as enthusiastically as last week. Nonetheless, the 10-year closed below the key technical level of 3.50% after hitting cycle highs of 4.25% in November. Can the bond bulls continue to thwart the bears and keep 3.50% as the new level of technical support? The upcoming four-day week will be the first test with a stack of housing data scheduled to be released. Meanwhile, yield curves of all shapes and size continue to invert deeper and longer than ever before. What is the bond market signaling, how much higher will the Fed hike their overnight lending right, and what lurks in the shadows of the economy? Join me in this video to find out, in another episode of the Mortgage Guru Podcast. ------------------------------------ 2022 YEAR IN REVIEW ------------------------------------ I recently shared my financial markets "2022 Year in Review". You can access all five parts on my blog at http://JKUTS.com. You can also jump right to Part 1 by clicking here: https://jonkutsmeda.com/2022-year-in-review-part-1/ ---------------------- TIMESTAMPS ---------------------- (Coming Soon) ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- To request a personalized mortgage consultation from Jon contact him through his website at http://JKUTS.com You can also follow Jon on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. To make sure you always get your weekly dose of the Mortgage Guru, please subscribe to my YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/user/JonKutsmeda ---------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon. Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions. To subscribe to this podcast visit https://www.MortgageGuruPodcast.com #inflation #mortgagerates #recession 0 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLkRzb0FidjFNVjBB SEASON 03 - EPISODE 01: The new year decided to start with a bang! After a two-punch strike, from the NFP employment data and the ISM Services Sector report, the bond market rallied hard as both reports provided some early comfort, that perhaps, The Fed has slayed the inflation dragon. In this episode, I unwrap the data I just mentioned above and explain what this means for mortgage rates and the housing market. HINT: This seems to be the beginning of a new trend lower in mortgage rates, back down to historic averages. WARNING: Lower bond yields (rates) will likely come off the back of a market crash or recession. At the forefront of that will likely be the housing market, as the most recent bubble appears to have popped with 4-consecutive weeks of price declines. Lower mortgage rates are great news, but not if you are unable to take advantage of them with a refinance because housing price declines have wiped out the equity you need to qualify for a lower rate and payment. ---------------------------------------- MORE ON THIS EPISODE ---------------------------------------- The non-farm payroll report is a monthly survey that attempts to gauge the health of the labor market. Historically it has been one of the most widely monitored data sets by the bond market as it provides a glimpse into when the underlying economy may be likely to experience inflation or deflation in the coming months, or year. Although it was another month of positive jobs growth, many of those new jobs were multiple job holders (people with more than one job). More importantly, growth in wages had slowed, which was another good sign that inflation may have peaked. Bonds do not like inflation, and therefore the bond market liked this data which resulted in a big bond rally. IMPORTANT Mortgage rates are mostly driven by the price of mortgage bonds, and only indirectly by what the Fed decides to do with their overnight lending rate, The Fed Funds. I discuss the important relationship between bonds and mortgage rates in this episode. Shortly after the NFP report, the ISM Services Sector data was released. The services sector had been "running hot" lately, adding fuel to concerns that inflation could become "anchored". Not only did the data miss expectations, but it was the biggest miss outside of a major recession or financial crisis. Either inflation is merely cooling quickly, or the economy is headed for hard times. ------------------------------------ 2022 YEAR IN REVIEW ------------------------------------ I recently shared my financial markets "2022 Year in Review". You can access all five parts on my blog at http://JKUTS.com. You can also jump right to Part 1 by clicking here: https://jonkutsmeda.com/2022-year-in-review-part-1/ ---------------------- TIMESTAMPS ---------------------- (Coming Soon) ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- To request a personalized mortgage consultation from Jon contact him through his website at http://JKUTS.com You can also follow Jon on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. To make sure you always get your weekly dose of the Mortgage Guru, please subscribe to my YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/user/JonKutsmeda ---------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon. Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions. To subscribe to this podcast visit https://www.MortgageGuruPodcast.com #inflation #mortgagerates #refinance 2 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLmE2Si1EeEp0Nng0 EPISODE 11: The Fed strikes back against animal spirts and investors front-running the potential of a pivot. The Fed raised the overnight lending rate once again in a telegraphed move of a 50-basis point increase; The Fed Funds Rate now sits at 4.50%. This is the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in Fed history, adding all 450 basis points of hikes in 2022. Rate hiking cycles typically end in a recession or a similar type of financial crisis, and that is exactly what the yield curve is implying. The entire yield curve at one point has been inverted, including the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year U.S Treasury Bond. In this episode I discuss what an extremely inverted curve means for the future of the U.S. economy, including the labor market and the housing market. Of course, we also discuss mortgage rates, which after climbing above 7% for the first time in over two-decades receded back into the low 6% range. This rally came off the back of a critical recovery in long-duration U.S. Bonds as the 10-year closed the week below 3.50% after reaching the dizzying heights of 4.25% in late October. Bond prices drive most first-lien mortgage rates, far more than the Fed and their overnight lending rate. However, rates on 2nd-lien mortgages, especially HELOC's (Home Equity Line of Credit), are heavily influenced by Fed policies, which I explain in the podcast. Tune in for this week's episode to learn more about HELOC interest rates and why the time to consider one is probably now behind you. I also share where I think 30-year fixed mortgage rates are headed in 2023 - 2024 and I give you the inside scoop on how to access my financial markets "2022 Year in Review". ---------------------- TIMESTAMPS ---------------------- 00:00 - ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- To request a personalized mortgage consultation from Jon contact him through his website at http://JKUTS.com You can also follow Jon on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. To make sure you always get your weekly dose of the Mortgage Guru, please subscribe to my YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/user/JonKutsmeda ---------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon. Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions. To subscribe to this podcast visit https://www.MortgageGuruPodcast.com #mortgagerates #ratehikes #recession 2 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLmUyTG9uOFdMS280 CLIP 1, EPISODE 10: In this video I explain how mortgage rates DO NOT rise or fall. Instead, what actually happens is mortgage rates become either more expensive or cheaper. This is because mortgage rates, and their price, are derived from specific mortgage bond coupons. Depending on a number of factors, bond investors will buy or sell certain coupons based on their price and yield (rate). This liquidity, or capital inflow, to certain bonds is what makes mortgage rates more expensive or cheaper. Learn more by listening in to this clip from the July 29, 2022 episode of the Mortgage Guru Podcast. ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- To request a personalized mortgage consultation from Jon contact him through his website at http://JKUTS.com You can also follow Jon on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. To make sure you always get your weekly dose of the Mortgage Guru, please subscribe to my YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/user/JonKutsmeda ---------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon. Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions. To subscribe to this podcast visit https://www.MortgageGuruPodcast.com #mortgagerates #refinance #bondmarket 5 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLi1CVS1tcUNfQlI4 EPISODE 10: It was a jam-packed week with the FOMC rate decision and the first report on Q2 GDP. The bond market rallied after the Fed raised the policy rate, the Fed Funds, by 75 basis points. This brought the 10-year Treasury Bond below the 2.75% resistance level, ending the week right around 2.65%. The yield curve has been inverted across different parts of the curve for months. This is a very strong predictor of recession and just prior to The Fed announcement the 2-year and the 10-year was inverted more than 30-bps. Speaking of recession, an advance GDP report on Thursday showed the economy contracted again in quarter 2. The -0.9% drop marks two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which is considered an official recession. After the rate hike announcement and the GDP report the ongoing bond market rally which started a month ago picked up further momentum and as a result mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in nearly 3-months. How can mortgage rates drop if the Fed is hiking rates? Tune in for this week's episode to find out, and to hear an explainer on why mortgage rates do not actually drop but instead lower rates merely become less expensive.? ---------------------- TIMESTAMPS ---------------------- 00:25 - The Fed hikes the Fed Funds by 75 basis points 01:05 - What is the Fed Funds Rate 01:54 - The Fed's dual mandate 02:50 - Did the Fed cause high Inflation 05:35 - The supply chain bull whip effect 06:16 - When the only tool is a hammer (rate hikes) 07:00 - The impact of inflation 09:13 - How the bond market influences mortgage rates 09:59 - The mortgage rate data is lying 11:48 - How mortgage rates rise or fall (HINT: it's not the FED) 14:10 - What is really means to "Pay Points" 15:40 - Stop asking, "what is your rate"? 17:24 - Mortgages do not go up or down, instead they... 19:56 - Inflation as a rate-of-change 22:30 - What the current "risk off" bond rally means for mortgage rates 26:15 - The Fed hiking rates usually results in lower mortgage rates 28:57 - Are we in a recession? 30:30 - Keep a close eye on this piece of data 33:05 - Plan for the future, not for the present 34:41 - In conclusion ---------------------------------- CONNECT WITH JON ---------------------------------- To request a personalized mortgage consultation from Jon contact him through his website at http://JKUTS.com You can also follow Jon on twitter at https://twitter.com/JonKutsmeda or on Instagram at https://www.instagram.com/JonKutsmeda and on all other social media via his handle @JonKutsmeda. To make sure you always get your weekly dose of the Mortgage Guru, please subscribe to my YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/user/JonKutsmeda ---------------------- LEARN MORE ---------------------- Welcome to the MORTGAGE GURU PODCAST, where your host Jon Kutsmeda covers the topics that matter most to homeowners and real estate investors without the industry jargon. Each week Jon helps you to look under the hood of the housing market to make sense of the economic factors which drive home prices and mortgage rates so you can make sound financial decisions. To subscribe to this podcast visit https://www.MortgageGuruPodcast.com #mortgagerates #ratehikes #recession 1 0 YouTube Video VVVQY09fV1pYS1FhMWxGd0NHbHRXYzhBLlk2Yl9XTG9Wd0t3