home buying

Jan 8 2023

Did The Fed Slay Inflation?

Has The Fed Slayed the Inflation Dragon?   Find out in the latest episode of the Mortgage Guru Podcast. You can watch it on my YouTube Channel or visit the subscribe page on MortgageGuruPodcast.com to listen with your favorite podcast app.   ———————————– SEASON 03 | EPISODE 1 ———————————– The new year decided to start …

Did The Fed Slay Inflation? Read More »

Jan 3 2023

Mortgage Rate Arbitrage

MARCH MADNESS   March 2020 was the beginning of utter madness, in so many ways. For the financial markets, it meant unprecedented intervention from governments and central banks to keep the global economy from imploding. As a result of their policy decisions, we all experienced the severe side effect of 40-year high inflation in 2022. …

Mortgage Rate Arbitrage Read More »

Dec 23 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 5

HOUSING MARKET   In Part 5, the final post of the financial markets “2022 Year in Review”, we look at everyone’s favorite topic … the housing market. The 2022 Housing Bubble in the US is BIGGER than 2006, when considering home values adjusted for median income.   Meanwhile, the rapid change in mortgage rates this …

2022 Year in Review – Part 5 Read More »

Dec 16 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 4

YIELD CURVES   Yield curves, specifically INVERTED yield curves, are one of my favorite topics. Perhaps because they precede big moves lower in mortgage rates. Certain yield curves, once inverted, have an almost perfect track record for predicting recessions. An inverted yield curve is when a shorter-term bond has a higher yield than a longer-term …

2022 Year in Review – Part 4 Read More »

Dec 9 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 3

THE STOCK MARKET   The Fed liquidity suck is also reflected by the collapse in margin debt. In dollar terms, the U.S. equity market (stocks) erased nearly $16 Trillion of market cap from the peak, worse than the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).   Which conjures up the fear of “what if 2008/09 hit again” in …

2022 Year in Review – Part 3 Read More »

Dec 2 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 2

INFLATION OR DEFLATION   Why has The Fed been on such an aggressive tightening path? That question is for all the people who live under rocks. The obvious answer is INFLATION. Unfortunately a lot of the data used by The Fed to determine monetary policy is backward looking. They are driving the US economy while …

2022 Year in Review – Part 2 Read More »

Nov 25 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 1

GOBBLE GOBBLE   Does the tryptophan in turkey make you sleepy, or is it the glycemic shock of massive overeating? Does indulging in cheap credit make you a smart investor, or have governments and central bankers lulled you to sleep with massive intervention (QE, stimulus checks, PPP loans, bail outs, etc.)?   No matter how …

2022 Year in Review – Part 1 Read More »

Aug 10 2022

Inflation Nothing Burger

INFLATION NOTHING BURGER   Inflation is measured as a rate of change. It is also a lagging economic indicator because it uses backward looking data from the month before. I was suggesting the last two months that inflation had likely peaked, especially when we consider month-to-month trends, which had already been slowing.   Today’s July …

Inflation Nothing Burger Read More »

Aug 5 2022

Bull vs. Bear

BULL VS. BEAR   Prolonged asset price declines are called a Bear Market, whereas the continuous increase in price is known as a Bull Market. Besides higher prices, bull markets are characterized by extreme euphoria and often punctuated by an intense spike in price known as a “blow-off top”. Meanwhile, bear markets only reach their …

Bull vs. Bear Read More »

SUBSCRIBE
close slider

Subscribe

"*" indicates required fields

Your Name*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Scroll to Top