mortgage guru

Jan 8 2023

Did The Fed Slay Inflation?

Has The Fed Slayed the Inflation Dragon?   Find out in the latest episode of the Mortgage Guru Podcast. You can watch it on my YouTube Channel or visit the subscribe page on to listen with your favorite podcast app.   ———————————– SEASON 03 | EPISODE 1 ———————————– The new year decided to start …

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Jan 3 2023

Mortgage Rate Arbitrage

MARCH MADNESS   March 2020 was the beginning of utter madness, in so many ways. For the financial markets, it meant unprecedented intervention from governments and central banks to keep the global economy from imploding. As a result of their policy decisions, we all experienced the severe side effect of 40-year high inflation in 2022. …

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Dec 23 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 5

HOUSING MARKET   In Part 5, the final post of the financial markets “2022 Year in Review”, we look at everyone’s favorite topic … the housing market. The 2022 Housing Bubble in the US is BIGGER than 2006, when considering home values adjusted for median income.   Meanwhile, the rapid change in mortgage rates this …

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Dec 9 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 3

THE STOCK MARKET   The Fed liquidity suck is also reflected by the collapse in margin debt. In dollar terms, the U.S. equity market (stocks) erased nearly $16 Trillion of market cap from the peak, worse than the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).   Which conjures up the fear of “what if 2008/09 hit again” in …

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Nov 25 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 1

GOBBLE GOBBLE   Does the tryptophan in turkey make you sleepy, or is it the glycemic shock of massive overeating? Does indulging in cheap credit make you a smart investor, or have governments and central bankers lulled you to sleep with massive intervention (QE, stimulus checks, PPP loans, bail outs, etc.)?   No matter how …

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Aug 3 2022

Slow Motion Train Wreck

SLOW MOTION TRAIN WRECK   “How did you go bankrupt”, Bill asked. “Two ways”, Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly”. This is a popular quote from the Hemingway novel, “The Sun Also Rises”. It describes well, the slow-motion train wreck that is the US economy.   The US economy has had a tough year. Each bear …

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Apr 30 2022

Monetary Tug-of-War

I also shared a similar post on this topic via Instagram.   MONETARY POLICY TUG-OF-WAR The Fed’s preferred inflation metric (PCE) reported the highest year-over-year increase in 40 years today.   The Personal Consumption Expenditures data is the change in goods and services consumed by all households. However, the consumer doesn’t need Fed data to …

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Mar 21 2022

Rate Crash Deja Vu

  Last week the Fed hiked the “Fed Funds Rate” by 25 basis points (0.25%). Today Fed Chairmen Jerome Powell made additional comments on how they (The Fed) plans to reign in inflation. I summarize those comments in the image below.   It is said that markets never repeat, but they do rhyme. The current …

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Mar 15 2022

Cascading Chaos

  “China, China, China.”   Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day (March 14th) since the global financial crisis (2009).   The Golden Dragon Index, which represents market performance of large and mid-cap securities in China is now cheaper than the S&P 500 for the first time since 2014, down 72% from …

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