yield curve

Feb 12 2023

Coming in Hot

INFLATION GOLDILOCKS The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation as a rate of change. The January CPI report is coming in hot and will be released on Tuesday. “Hot” in that sentence implies it is coming soon and will have a big impact on arrival. However, in the case of the actual …

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Jan 28 2023

Investing for Rogue Waves

Are You Ready to Surf the Debt Super-Cyclone?   Find out in the latest episode of the Milkshakes Markets Madness Show. You can watch it on my YouTube Channel or visit the subscribe page on MilkshakesPod.com to listen with your favorite podcast app.   ————————————– SEASON 01 | EPISODE 04 ————————————– Big wave surfers are …

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Jan 19 2023

7 Things to Know Before You Get a HELOC

READ THIS BEFORE YOU CONSIDER A HELOC (or Refinance) There are a lot of misunderstandings about what The Fed does when it “raises rates” and the impact it has on mortgage rates. The Fed has limited policy tools when it makes monetary policy, one of those is the Fed Funds Rate, an overnight lending rate. …

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Jan 3 2023

Mortgage Rate Arbitrage

MARCH MADNESS   March 2020 was the beginning of utter madness, in so many ways. For the financial markets, it meant unprecedented intervention from governments and central banks to keep the global economy from imploding. As a result of their policy decisions, we all experienced the severe side effect of 40-year high inflation in 2022. …

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Dec 23 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 5

HOUSING MARKET   In Part 5, the final post of the financial markets “2022 Year in Review”, we look at everyone’s favorite topic … the housing market. The 2022 Housing Bubble in the US is BIGGER than 2006, when considering home values adjusted for median income.   Meanwhile, the rapid change in mortgage rates this …

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Dec 16 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 4

YIELD CURVES   Yield curves, specifically INVERTED yield curves, are one of my favorite topics. Perhaps because they precede big moves lower in mortgage rates. Certain yield curves, once inverted, have an almost perfect track record for predicting recessions. An inverted yield curve is when a shorter-term bond has a higher yield than a longer-term …

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Dec 9 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 3

THE STOCK MARKET   The Fed liquidity suck is also reflected by the collapse in margin debt. In dollar terms, the U.S. equity market (stocks) erased nearly $16 Trillion of market cap from the peak, worse than the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).   Which conjures up the fear of “what if 2008/09 hit again” in …

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Dec 2 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 2

INFLATION OR DEFLATION   Why has The Fed been on such an aggressive tightening path? That question is for all the people who live under rocks. The obvious answer is INFLATION. Unfortunately a lot of the data used by The Fed to determine monetary policy is backward looking. They are driving the US economy while …

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Nov 25 2022

2022 Year in Review – Part 1

GOBBLE GOBBLE   Does the tryptophan in turkey make you sleepy, or is it the glycemic shock of massive overeating? Does indulging in cheap credit make you a smart investor, or have governments and central bankers lulled you to sleep with massive intervention (QE, stimulus checks, PPP loans, bail outs, etc.)?   No matter how …

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